$200NL 6-max @ FT

i raise [Qc] UTG to $7. UTG+1 calls. CO calls. Button calls. CO seems marginally loose and a little passive. Button is relatively aggressive and has been 3-betting me a bit PF. $320 for me, $225 for CO, $260 for button.

flop: [Jh][Th]
pot: $30

i fire $23 UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button makes it $60. he would almost assuredly repop PF w/ Kx or any set. do i just shove it here?

Ice- on first glance it doesnt seem as strong as a 2-card OESFD. but consider the following:

Button would almost assuredly repop PF with KK, or with AK/AQ, and probably JJ/TT.

i am a favorite over any 2 pair, and a favorite over Jx or Tx. or any other x hand. im flipping w/ KQ and have 46% equity vs. Q9.

i think button's range is the above 2 pair, x hands, plus the odd AQ/Q9/KQ, the occasional set, and flushes.

how would you play against that range? and how much do you worry about CO/what do you put him on?

and actually i just checked some math........i am flipping vs. JJ or TT in the event that he has one of those. the argument can be made that in a lot of ways this is stronger than a "normal" OESFD hand.

I bet if you ran pokerstove for the following range - {[Ah] x, all 2 pair, pair+straight, made flushes, made straights} - you'd probably come out about 50/50 against that range.

So, if you don't mind variance, I'd just shove b/c you are OOP and I'm not sure you can outplay Button on the turn and river - i.e. know if your hand is good now or what outs are good. Shoving is almost certainly +EV I think, the only reason for a call is if you think you can outplay him for greater +EV. I'm not sure you can. If you had position, I'd say call in a heartbeat.

D

EDIT: I'm re-thinking this b/c I think made flushes make up a bigger part of Button's range than I originally thought. Also, I'm not sure KQ/JQ no heart calls the shove. Can someone run some pokerstove with the above range, and then the range w/o Pair+str8 draw, no heart?

I think all 3 options kinda suck, so check flop?

D

this hand played out really weird.

i shoved the flop.

CO called my shove. Button folded.

CO flips [Jc]. great. im just over 60-40 to win.

turn . ship $560 pot his way.

i am getting pounded at $200NL, by the way. all sorts of big hands gone wrong.

jon

Umm, you don't have to push marginal situations to crush 200NL, fwiw IMHO.