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Dont raise..you will fold off a worse hand

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Dont raise..you will fold off a worse hand

Postby iceman5 » Wed Apr 27, 2005 9:26 am

This is a subject that really needs to be delved into deeper. Alot of times, you bet the flop and then get raised. ALot of people say that if you reraise, only a better hand will call and a hand that you have dominated will fold. My position is that you should reraise anyway in alot of the cases because the board can become scary and kill your action (and poeple love to overplay their hands even when you tell them theyre beat)

Heres 2 examples but there are many:
$2/$4 NL
#1) I have 88 in the BB. Unraised pot and 4 to the flop.
Pot is $16. The flop is 862 with 2 clubs. I bet $15 and get one caller. This guy loves to call the flop and raise the turn but Ive yet to see his cards. This may or may not have any bearing on this concept of raising or not raising which may or may not fold off worse hands.

The pot is $46. The turn is a Q (no flush). I bet $30 and he raises to $90. Now, do I call knowing full well that he drawing dead, but that a club may come on the river and kill my action? Not only that but he could have something like KQ of clubs. In that case, he'll probably call a reraise.

I pushed all in.


#2) Villain raises to $16. You flat call with AA and youre heads up.
Pot is $38. The flop comes Q78 with 2 spades. He bets $30.

You are pretty sure that youre ahead. If he has KK, he has 2 outs. If he has AQ he has 2 outs. If he has AK, hes dead. Some will say, dont raise because only a better hand will call. (QQ). I say you have to raise because there are too many scare cards that can hit the turn that will scare the raiser.

Any spade, any 9, and 6, another Q (if he has KK), but a Q will scare you also. I say raise now. Most people wont fold AQ there and most will push all in with KK. Any other hand isnt betting the turn anyway.

These arent the 2 best examples but I hope this generates discussion.
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Postby iceman5 » Wed Apr 27, 2005 9:29 am

Heres another example of when you need to raise it up even though you know your way ahead.
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Postby palman » Wed Apr 27, 2005 9:51 am

I'd agree with you, but in situations where people check-raise you on the flop, you have position on them, and there aren't THAT many scare cards, you should almost always just let him pot commit himself.

In situations where scare cards are a-plenty and you are out of position, you should almost always be forcing the issue and re-raising.
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Postby Hofstra » Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:16 pm

How does the size of the pot fit into this problem? Should one be inclined to apply the principle "Don't raise... you'll fold off a worse hand" more liberally when the pot is very small, but is a substantial pot is a reason to diverge from it?

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Postby palman » Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:29 pm

Yes, it is implied that the larger the pot is, the more you should do what you can to take the pot down as soon as possible. Basically you have to evaluate the size of the pot compared to the size of your opponnents stack. (assuming you have him covered, if not, then your stack)
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Postby iceman5 » Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:37 pm

Lets say UTG raises to $16. You call on the button with QQ.

The flop comes 962 rainbow. There are no draws so there will be as few scare cards as possible to hit the turn.

UTG bet $30. Are you saying you shouldnt raise here even if you knew he had AK?

Of course he might fold. He most likely WILL fold, but hes not going to bet the turn again unimproved anyway (I would say 75% of people wont).

So since he already paid his $30, why let him see another card for free? I say make him pay another $60 if he wants to see the turn. By just calling you are giving him ashot at 6 outs for free. He will check fold when he misses and bet, check/call or check raise the turn when he hits.

This is clear case of having the best hand and having position but I still say its best to raise this flop.
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Postby McMonkey » Thu Apr 28, 2005 7:35 am

There's several factors that go into my decision to raise or smooth call. I think ice's last post is hitting on one of the more important factors here: relative hand strength. In the first hand, the trip 8's as you described are not likely to be beat on the river, so the "free" card danger in calling is not there. Yes the club may kill any river action, but against this player do you expect him to call a large re-raise on the turn? How often will he fold? The club will come on the river less than 20% of the time, even if you throw in the Q's (which would kill action if he does not have a Q) a scare card will still come only about 1 time in 4. So he'd have to call your turn re-raise most of the time (assuming he'd give action on a non-scary river) for it to be the correct play. Since he is prone to raising the turn I'm not going to give him credit for a strong enough hand to call a big raise here and since I have position I'll give him a chance to bet again on the river.

On the other hand, the last hand that ice describes is a different story. Here you are in the lead with a pair of Q's, but with an overcard read it's a tenuous lead to say the least. You probably aren't going to get much action from the big cards unless they hit, add the fact that a bad card here loses you the pot, instead of just killing action, and I think it's a clear raise in most cases. It all changes, of course, if the opp is a calling station or is liable to make the call figuring you for an overcard bluff, but even in that case I'd still probably raise much more often than call.

But also keep in mind (and this is something that I too often forget about) that if you're going to be betting a lot of flops trying to pick up the pot with little or no hand, you must occasionally pick a spot to bet with a strong hand into someone you figure will call you to a showdown so you can give the impression that you usually have a hand to back up your betting. When I'm not quite on my A game I sometimes lose sight of this and end up targeted as a stealer, having to adjust my style of play for the extra calls (unfortunately when not on my A game it also takes me just a bit longer to figure out what my table image is and that's where I waste bets).
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Postby palman » Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:22 am

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Postby palman » Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:33 am

For clarification purposes: In the KK hand, if both opponnents are deep, I raise every time. The value of just calling isn't nearly as much when both stacks are deep, and if your opponnent has you beat, you lose alot more. But if either player in the hand has just one stack, you have to call here.

As a side note: I know you're trying to figure out when to push draws.... this would be a great time to re-raise/push a KQ, since you can reasonably expect to fold anything worse than 2 pair.
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Postby Gregor » Thu Apr 28, 2005 9:22 am

very good point....I feel i am more aggressive than most players once i feel im in the lead. I would rather take down a small pot, than putz around slowplaying, wondering if the guy hit his longshot....

They pay to see cards....if you floped a disguished nut str8 or something, it may be a different story, but i can;t tell you how many times when i first started playing poker that i'd be BB w/ 74, hit like a 568 flop, slowplay, and have the 7 hit, and get beat by the high side...

Over time, the consistency in your discipline will make you more money that putzing around looking to hit Home Runs like Rob Deer......
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Postby k3nt » Thu Apr 28, 2005 9:30 am

Rob Deer? Who remembers Rob Deer? Holy cow even I had forgotten about that man. (Sorry, thread hijack, please ignore.)
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Postby Gregor » Thu Apr 28, 2005 9:46 am

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Postby Zarathustra » Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:08 am

Thus Spoke Zarathustra
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Postby DaHitDogg » Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:56 am

Good call on the Adam Dunn analogy.
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