by McMonkey » Thu Apr 28, 2005 7:35 am
There's several factors that go into my decision to raise or smooth call. I think ice's last post is hitting on one of the more important factors here: relative hand strength. In the first hand, the trip 8's as you described are not likely to be beat on the river, so the "free" card danger in calling is not there. Yes the club may kill any river action, but against this player do you expect him to call a large re-raise on the turn? How often will he fold? The club will come on the river less than 20% of the time, even if you throw in the Q's (which would kill action if he does not have a Q) a scare card will still come only about 1 time in 4. So he'd have to call your turn re-raise most of the time (assuming he'd give action on a non-scary river) for it to be the correct play. Since he is prone to raising the turn I'm not going to give him credit for a strong enough hand to call a big raise here and since I have position I'll give him a chance to bet again on the river.
On the other hand, the last hand that ice describes is a different story. Here you are in the lead with a pair of Q's, but with an overcard read it's a tenuous lead to say the least. You probably aren't going to get much action from the big cards unless they hit, add the fact that a bad card here loses you the pot, instead of just killing action, and I think it's a clear raise in most cases. It all changes, of course, if the opp is a calling station or is liable to make the call figuring you for an overcard bluff, but even in that case I'd still probably raise much more often than call.
But also keep in mind (and this is something that I too often forget about) that if you're going to be betting a lot of flops trying to pick up the pot with little or no hand, you must occasionally pick a spot to bet with a strong hand into someone you figure will call you to a showdown so you can give the impression that you usually have a hand to back up your betting. When I'm not quite on my A game I sometimes lose sight of this and end up targeted as a stealer, having to adjust my style of play for the extra calls (unfortunately when not on my A game it also takes me just a bit longer to figure out what my table image is and that's where I waste bets).