OK some other posts about there being no point in using CB's against a sponge or calling station got me thinking.

By the time you get to the $100 level folks recognise CB's and are much less ready to fold to them (esp short-handed where more aggression is usually rewarded).

Let's take a typical scenario - on $100 tables -you raise 3xBB first in from the cut-off with an ok hand (say AQo) and the Button calls.

Flop misses you. $6.75 in pot.

Your options are

1. check-fold
2. check-call standard bet
3. check- min re-raise standard bet
4. check -re-raise push
5. token bet ($1-2)
6. CB ($3-5)
7. Pot sized bet ($6-8)
8. Overbet (say $10-12)
9. Push (yeh right)

What are we thinking about here?

Let's assume biggest stack involved is 60BB...

What are we looking for before making a decision?
How much do you alter your play for your read on villain and how much do you just take a standard line first and only worry about it if the standard line doesn't work?
What about flop texture?
Would your answer differ is there was a flush or high str8 draw on the flop?
What would change if you had raised with a medium pair and overcards came on the flop? (and in that scenario do you play ace overcards different from other paint?)
Does full ring or 6 max matter?


Almost always I would tend to fire off a $4-$5 bet. On the weaker tables this simply got a fold 2/3 of the time or more. Now though I'm starting to think I need to mix it up a lot more to maximise my EV...

Betting $5 there EVERY time is +EV against most players. Ive found that they found about 65% of the time.

If you check, a good player will bet $5 and YOU will fold. He doesnt need anything to make that bet if hes good.

Also, if its folded to you in the cutoff, AQ is better than an OK hand. I also never raise to just 3BBs. That has nothing to do with your question. I just figured Id throw it in there.

Ice - what is your standard raise? I assume you mix it up a bit with similar hands so no one gets a read on your bet size.

So lets say it's folded to you in the CO with AQ - whats your raise?
1 limper?
3 limpers - do you still raise or smooth call here?

I know you also like to limp AA or KK in EP, whats your opening raise here if you feel the table won't raise your limp?

If you check, a good player will bet $5 and YOU will fold. He doesnt need anything to make that bet if hes good.

Would he drop it to a pot sized raise 3/4 of the time then?

I agree with ice here that a $5 bet in that situation is a solid standard line against unfamiliar players. Say it's the first hand I'm playing at the table, that's what I'd do to begin with.

But absolutely no read is an unusual situation. During the first orbit or so that you play, I think one very important thing to be thinking about is whether a continuation bet has potential. A calling station or so at the table changes things enormously.

Another thing I've been working with, with some decent results, I think, is checking good flops out of position against a LAG whom you pretty much know will bet. Then you can checkraise them and take down the hand with your AA, AK improved, whatever. Top set is of course ideal but often hard to come by.

The main place where continuation bets are bad, I think, is actually against bad players. If you can assume they're fairly decent, I think the $5 bet is a pretty good way to go.

One other thought/question: I had kind of been thinking something along the lines of, "Well, if I can't make my continuation bet, why raise AQ here?" And that attitude may not be completely wrong.

But, one can also consider this: If the continuation bet is not doable, that means you've got some nut who's willing to call it with any semblance of a draw, any pair, ace-high or whatever. Anyhow, if he's calling the flop more than 50% of the time, he's calling on just complete junk (worse than bottom pair, because you don't even hit any pair at all more than 1/3 of the time). If someone is actually doing that, then it seems to me like you still make money with the raise because he's paying you off so often when you hit your A or Q there, which also happens about 1/3 of the time. It's particularly good when you have position, because then he either bets into your or doesn't, and if he doesn't, you improve your chances of hitting because you get one extra card when you check.

Taking another step on this whole issue, let me go for another example. Let's say at a 2/5 NL game, you can get 2 callers typically with a $20 raise UTG, and you have AK.

Ok, now if you raise here, you'll have a pot of $60, of which you yourself have contributed $20. Let's also say that your continuation bet of $50 has a probability p of taking down the pot. What's your EV on making the raise and continuation bet (with or without improvement)?

You make $40 net p times, with or without the best hand. You hit 1/3 of the time, and I'm just going to assume that you always have the best hand there (if p is low, you probably actually do). But 1-p times, you get a caller, who bets the turn if you check it but lays down if you bet again (again an oversimplification, but should be roughly accurate).

So, with a probability of 1-p, the following happens: 2/3 of the time, you lose $70, and 1/3 of the time, you win $90. So, we have here an EV of (p-1)*16.5 (which is a minus).

The total EV is thus: 56.5*p - 16.5. For this to break even, p can still be quite low. In fact, a success rate of 1/3 is profitable, with 1/4 being just barely in the red.

Now, let's look at another oversimplification: Let's say you limp your AK, 5 more limpers for a flop pot of $32 (I'm subtracting the rake at the casino where I play). You win this pot 1/3 of the time, and lose your $5 2/3 of the time. So, your EV here is something like $7.

So, now we can solve for p to see when the continuation bet is better (aside from all my oversimplifications): We need 7 < 56.5*p - 16.5.

Hence:
23.5 < 56.5*p

Basically, if p > 50%, then the continuation bet is better according to that calculation, which I think is really pretty realistic. If they fold at least half the time, you're better of making it. If they call the continuation bet more than half the time, then just forget about raising AK.