Most of you regulars understand this concept.... but after I played this hand I thought it would be good to post about as a refresher. But mostly this is aimed to help the newer members understand how we think.

6 max $300NL 2/3 blinds

i make it $10 to go with [Th] on the button. I get 3 callers. SB, BB and CO.

FLOP$40
[6h][2d]

Checks to me. I check. Most of the time I bet here but CO is an uber-aggressive player if he sees weakness. He doesn't really think about bets before he makes them. I'm expecting him to bet the turn.

TURN$40
[6h][2d]

Checked to CO who bets $50 as I hoped he would. I call.

RIVER$140
[6h][2d]

villain instabets $200 (I still have $150 left after his bet and he covers.). I call and lose to [4s].


Of course my initial thought was damn I should have raised that turn or folded that river. But that's results oriented thinking.

IMO I played the hand correctly on 4th and 5th street given his range. On the turn he was drawing extremely small.

"But you lost the pot and an extra $200 on the river, when you could have raised the turn to protect your hand?!"

I will make more money in the long-run by letting him see his 4 outer for free. He's uber-aggressive and will most likely bluff the river $100-$200 if he doesn't improve. If he trips the river I stack him for his last $350. If he hits two-pair he will fire. Basically he's the type of player who's going to fire away at any river card in this spot.

If I raise the turn he will sense strength and get out of the way (unless he has a monster already, but that money will still go in on the river.). While raising to win the pot isn't horrible, it is not as profitable as letting him continue with his charade.

If my opponent and I go through that exact same scenario (albeit with different river cards) 1000 times or 10,000 times or 100,000 etc....... I'm positive I'm coming out a substantial winner. A much bigger winner than just raising the turn and having him fold.

It's all situational of course. Against a different opponent there will be different variables to consider. Which is what makes poker such a great game.

I guess what I'm saying is.... look at the big picture

Can you explain the pre flop action better?

What are the blinds in this game?

We raised an amount that looks small to me, on the button, and yet got 4 callers? This implies that people limped in. If so I think our raise should definately be bigger than $10.

Also, if you and 4 others bet $10 pre flop, how is the pot on the flop $40? The rake in this game sounds unbeatable!

I have no comments on post flop play.

Thanks for posting this. I have to start doing this more when I have a monster on the flop.

You have the nuts there right now. The best hand he can have would be something like or : A gutshot plus back door flush draw. With a hand like that, their win percentage is only 17.5%.

Giving a free card to an aggresive player when AT BEST they will win 17.5% is a good play.

I'm not defending my flop check at all. Actually I prefer a bet.

I was just focusing on the turn and river for this concept.

I take kenny's line personally. But I don't really CB often so it makes more sense.

I cb this with 3 others in the hand, actually. I don't like your flop check. I think it's fine to let people hang themselves and such (do it ALL the time), but when you're in a hand with 3 others, you do better by betting this flop than by checking.