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Are you willing to go all in with a baby flush

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Are you willing to go all in with a baby flush

Postby GooperMC » Sun Sep 11, 2005 7:44 am

In my last few sessions I have noticed a bunch of times where someone was under betting the pot so I was calling bets with my flush draw. I missed and it got checked around on the river and someone was drawing at a higher flush. I haven't played enough hands to know if this is normal so I though I would ask people who have.

A small table to show how often someone will be dealt a higher flush for a full ring:
- 23: 25%
- 78: 18%
- 9T: 15%
- TJ: 11%
- JQ: 6%

These are just approximations which will change based on how many flush cards are above and below your cards. Most importantly this table only show how often opponents are dealt a higher flush not how often opponents play those flush cards.

My question is this: Against a typical low level opponent are you willing to go all in with a baby flush?

An example:
You are in CO with [5s][6s]. 2 limpers to you, you limp, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

The flop is [7s] [Qs] [2h]. EP bets $0.50 (pot is $1.25), MP calls, you call, button calls.

The turn is [Jd]: EP again bets $0.50, MP folds, you call, button calls.

The river is [3s]: EP checks, you bet 2/3s pot, button raises pot, EP folds, hero ????

Lets say that the button is an average low level player (VP$IP around 35 and a W$SD around 50). What is your play? What would you do if the river was a [As] instead?
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Postby k3nt » Sun Sep 11, 2005 8:25 am

In this case, the button has been doing nothing but call call call and now he's raising. The only hand that got there is the flush. You are probably beaten. Hard to believe he's on the only lower flush out there [4s][2s]. You can call to make sure, but for God's sake don't push all-in.
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Postby Ricardooon » Sun Sep 11, 2005 8:35 am

Agree. While it is extremely bad luck to be drawing to flush against someone also drawing to higher flush it does happen. This means when you do hit you aren't playing the nuts and in a multi-way pot there is going to be the chance someone has better.

With this in mind I am happy to bet out with it but less willing to push, one of those occasions I need a good reason such as the player being a muppet. It is the limitation of playing lower flushes. While sometimes you might be bluffed I don't think it will happen too often, normally when it hits and the betting goes ballistic they can put you on it and many players just cannot fold these.

The good news should be that these are easy to spot and evaluate your chances of success depending on how many cards beat you. You can work out whether calling the bet is +EV by figuring the odds vs the number of higher cards and see how they fall. Having reads on other players will also help you narrow this down.

I've been done once this month, it sucks.

Rich
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Postby ua1176 » Sun Sep 11, 2005 9:19 am

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Postby GooperMC » Sun Sep 11, 2005 9:40 am

I figured you guys would say that if the [3s] hit on the river.

What if the [3s] was an [As]?
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Postby T-Rod » Mon Sep 12, 2005 9:23 am

If you KNOW that your opponents are drawing, why draw with them?

I say raise the pot big on flop/turn. They might fold, you learn if they'll pay beyond pot odds to draw (which is nice when you have nut flush draw or TPTK), and you still have outs (theorhetically) even if they hit.

I hate just drawing when I have the baby flush b/c I either lose big or win small.
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Postby AlexMR » Mon Sep 12, 2005 10:07 am

NObody told you you shouldnt be playing 42s. Not if you are starting playing the game (you said you dont have many hands). I think that is the best I can tell you.

The suited connectors and one gappers require a very good both preflop but specially post flop play. In My case, if I have anything less than the nut flush draw and I want to stay, I try to limit the field, because most of the times when you are in a multiway pot and there is a flush draw, and you have two or more callers it is very likely that someone is drawing a higher flush so you are drawing deadt.

Yesterday I played a hand with suited connectors, and i hit the runner runner flush. I had position over one player and since I checked the turn he bet full size pot on the river, when the flush hit. He was a very aggressive player, and I didnt buy it. I pushed with my nine high flush and he folded.

In that case I had mid pair a flush draw and was heads up. That is all you can ask when playing the suited connectors or one gappers. He called my continuation bet and the turn gave me my flush draw. Since i was in the button my strong flop bet got me a free river. When I hit, I was playing for my stack, because that is why you play the SCs and it was very unlikely that he called my 3/4pot bet on the flop with a runner runner flush. I wasnt going to chicken out.

I just think you have many other ways of improving in the next few thousand hands. Leave the suited connectors for later when you feel you are one of the dominants players at the table and when you dont have that yellow phone over your head in the table :) (I am kidding here...but most of us started as calling stations, I am included there).

Also, in the lower stakes, I find so many tables where I just dont want to play them, because flop folding equity is just almost nonexistant. Yesterday I was playing at two tables that had WtSD over 40%. No way I am putting pressure with SCs there.

Play your good hands and when you are able to let go and overpair, AA,KK two pair in a flushed and 4 to str8 board, then I think you are ready to start playing the SCs, following a very aggressive strategy with them.
[17:16] alitomr: http://micropenis.ws/forum/viewtopic.php?t=723
[17:19] mekosking: wow
[17:19] mekosking: i give that poof a week tops
[17:19] mekosking: before he snuffs it
[17:19] mekosking: I THINK THAT MAY BE NV
[17:20] mekosking: IN DISGUISE
[17:20] alitomr: LOLZ
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