by Smokin'Al » Sun May 01, 2005 7:07 am
Why only put villain on A8? He's showing strength by raising an EP bettor and two callers. It's a draw-tastic board, so no-one decent is going to slowplay (in fact his raise is far too small). There's a range of hands he could have, but definitely 88, 77, 33, 87 in addition to 99, TT, possibly JJ; also A8, or a big draw.
I think reraising the flop would be a mistake, as you don't have enough fold equity given the raise and the two callers; and many of the hands that will fold (apart from A8) you want in (eg lower spade draws).
Also, if villain has got a strong hand, he's made a mistake by giving you excellent odds to call, and reraising lets him redeem himself.
Finally just calling will induce the weaker spade draws to stay in (ie the two initial callers).
OK, so once you've called the flop I reckon you need to check again, as your hand has got worse and you don't have enough information to know what's happened to his hand. Possibilities...
(1) He bets strong and you fold - well, you had odds to call the flop only, so no big deal
(2) He bets weak and gives you odds to call again
(3) He bets weak and you feel that a check raise all-in will move him off his hand ... (actually he'd have to bet *very* weak since you only 100 left and there's 100 in the pot).
I like gunning the flop with a big draw as much as the next man, but not against someone who raises a multiway pot with several callers. I think the situation here calls for bet-call flop, check-fold turn, and I think that is +EV.