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QQ 2/4nl, thoughts?

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QQ 2/4nl, thoughts?

Postby Stelvask » Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:22 pm

5x seems to be this guys normal raise. i've seen him raise 3 limpers otb with AA to 5x and raise utg to the same amount before with QQ. other than that, i' haven't paid close enough attention to what hands he was showing down eh he made the raise

I was prepared to believe he had AA from the get go, but his pot on the flop confused me - AA doesn't pot this flop does it? I dont think KK does either, and i'm sure JJ wouldn't

So who raises this flop? who folds? How about the turn? I can't help but feel like a calling station on this hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed)

MP3 ($310.25)
CO ($415.90)
Button ($419.90)
SB ($400.75)
BB ($174.50)
UTG ($360)
UTG+1 ($374.90)
Hero ($632)
MP2 ($614.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with [Qh], [Qd].
UTG raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero calls $20, 6 folds.

Flop: ($46) [2s], [6d], [Jd] (2 players)
UTG bets $44, Hero calls $44.

Turn: ($134) [7c] (2 players)
UTG bets $72, Hero calls $72.

River: ($278) [Ks] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $278

Results in white below:
UTG has 9s 9h (one pair, nines).
Hero has Qh Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $278.
-[4h]-
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Postby Rhound50 » Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:06 pm

I think you are ahead after the flop, before readin the outcome I was thinking AK, I would have raised the turn, you have a nice pot already and you havent given him a chance to fold his big cards, which is what I thought he had. After two shots at the pot, you arent likely to get any more money out of him on the river, since you called both of his bets, a raise on the turn and him folding is just fine with you, you get almost a $300 pot without having to show your cards.
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:56 pm

I put him on TT.

Why would you think you wont bet the pot on the flop with AA or KK? Theres a flush draw out there. I think a pot bet is warranted.

When he slowed down at the turn, I was pretty sure it was AK, or TT
When he checked the river, I was 80% sure it was TT (99 same thing).

I still probably check behind on the river though because he wont pay you off with TT and he'll call you with AK.
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Postby Mad Genius » Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:07 pm

I would raise the turn or value bet the river. Either works.
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Postby kennyg » Fri Apr 29, 2005 2:30 am

I would raise the flop or turn and try to get as many free cards as possible.

On the river...I would not value bet..he could decide you're full of crap and come over top of you, which you can't call. Not to mention there's a good possibltly he holds AK, in which case you're beat anyway.
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Postby rdale » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:09 am

I'm fond of raising the flop with the draw out there it gives you a better idea what to do when the scare card hits against most people.

However the way you played it, smooth calling is fine, you got him to lead at both streets. Value betting the river, it would make me sick to be check raised big, which may happen and a third of a pot sized bet I don't think is getting called, it is either getting raised all in or folded fairly often. I think checking it down here gives you the oppornity to see his cards which may be more valuable than the money. I think there may be more merit to the way you played it, than the way I would which would scare him off nines or put me to tough choice if he decides I'm bs'ing and pushes to my reraise.
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Postby k3nt » Fri Apr 29, 2005 11:23 am

Raise the turn. You don't want to see an A or a K on the river. A flat call requres more strength than a raise, and imo your QQ is not strong enough to flat call twice. Once was enough or more than enough. (If I don't raise the flop, I definitely raise the turn especially after his weak bet.)

Plus, if he bets strong with that K on the river you pretty much have to fold.
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Postby Mad Genius » Fri Apr 29, 2005 7:51 pm

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Postby kennyg » Sat Apr 30, 2005 1:56 am

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Postby Mad Genius » Sat Apr 30, 2005 4:09 am

Yes I agree, but his line preflop and on looks very much like he is protecting a vulnerable hand but thinks he is good. He bets full pot on the flop and then half pot on the turn. That's a standard line when you are protecting a hand from what I can tell. I doubt he plays AA-KK the same as there are far less scare cards that hit and probably fewer outs the opponent has. Clearly he wants stelvask to fold but at the same time has a hand which we should be able to narrow down to 99-TT by the river once he checks the King. If he happened to be playing AK that fast I doubt he checks the river, but I honestly don't think AK is played by anyone other than a total clown like that on the flop and turn. This player seems to have some idea as far as betting strategy goes, and because of the fact that Stelvask has called the entire way, it would not be unreasonable at all to put him on a missed flush draw if he bets the river. Hell, if I had TT there I might pay him off thinking he went bust on his draw.

There are exceptions obviously, and sometimes I'll be wrong but generally I like to trust my read in situations like these.
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