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25NL, Non-nut flush drw, TP Push.

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25NL, Non-nut flush drw, TP Push.

Postby antneye » Thu May 03, 2007 6:10 am

Remember, I'm a NL N00B. Forgive me if this is mundane to some of you.

2nd hand at table, no reads. I think that if I had the nut flush draw this would be standard, but without the draw to the nuts is this still ok? I am OOP with a strong hand and people saying they like their hands.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) from (Format: Bet The Pot)

Hero ($25)
BB ($25)
UTG ($8.05)
UTG+1 ($25.20)
MP1 ($42.70)
MP2 ($23.80)
MP3 ($24.75)
CO ($23.55)
Button ($13.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with [Jc], [9c].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) [2c], [5c], [Jh] (6 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $3.5, CO calls $3.50, Button folds, Hero raises to $24.75,
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Postby Mr_Burnout » Thu May 03, 2007 7:11 am

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Postby MTPaid » Thu May 03, 2007 10:40 am

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Postby black_knight6 » Thu May 03, 2007 10:52 am

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Postby Schuster » Thu May 03, 2007 11:04 am

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Postby black_knight6 » Thu May 03, 2007 11:30 am

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Postby Schuster » Thu May 03, 2007 12:06 pm

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Postby k3nt » Thu May 03, 2007 12:07 pm

Yeah but the other issue is you could be up against AJ from one guy and a better flush draw from the other guy. In which case you need somebody to fold....
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Postby black_knight6 » Thu May 03, 2007 12:10 pm

Yeah...it's the guy who CALLED the first flop raise that we think could have the nut flush draw...it's HIM that we're wanting to fold IF he has the FD putting the other guy on 2pr/set (or whatever).

If both call, J9 is in VERY VERY bad shape.
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Postby MTPaid » Thu May 03, 2007 6:21 pm

Let's say MP2 has a set, he's definitely calling. Now we have 2 people all-in. If CO has the NFD, he's probably calling with those odds and less than $20 left so you probably aren't making him fold. I'm still not sure the NFD would fold even if the orginal raiser (MP2) does. He has an over-card with a flush draw and is getting almost 2-1 on his money with about $35 in the pot. He only needs 1.2 to call and I don't think most $25 NL players are sophisticated enough to even think that someone else has a FD and 2 of their outs are gone. But if we're looking at [Ac][3c] or [Ac][4c] they also have the SFD.

Just for the hell of it hypotheticals, although I don't expect you to be able to do this or even think of all the possibilities in the time you have to make a decision.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2620563
pokenum -h jc 9c - 5h 5d - ac 4c -- 2c 5c jh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 5c 2c Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc 9c 16 1.77 887 98.23 0 0.00 0.018
5d 5h 587 65.01 316 34.99 0 0.00 0.650
Ac 4c 300 33.22 603 66.78 0 0.00 0.332

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2620566
pokenum -h jc 9c - ah jd - ac 4c -- 2c 5c jh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 5c 2c Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc 9c 87 9.63 804 89.04 12 1.33 0.103
Jd Ah 426 47.18 456 50.50 21 2.33 0.483
Ac 4c 369 40.86 525 58.14 9 1.00 0.414

So, like I said, this could be scary in an unraised pot, especially after a raise and a call in an pot that wasn't raised before the flop.
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Postby antneye » Thu May 03, 2007 10:13 pm

heres how it played out.............


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) from (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($25)
BB ($25)
UTG ($8.05)
UTG+1 ($25.20)
MP1 ($42.70)
MP2 ($23.80)
MP3 ($24.75)
CO ($23.55)
Button ($13.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with JImage, 9Image.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 2Image, 5Image, JImage (6 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $3.5, CO calls $3.50, Button folds, Hero raises to $24.75, BB folds, MP2 calls $20.05 (All-In), CO calls $19.80 (All-In).

Turn: ($73.85) KImage (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($73.85) 6Image (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $73.85

Results in white below:
Hero has Jc 9c (flush, jack high).
MP2 has Qs Qc (one pair, queens).
CO has 2d 2h (three of a kind, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $73.84.
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Postby black_knight6 » Thu May 03, 2007 10:25 pm

Nice...so be glad no one had the bigger FD...

I still like the play and DO think that the NFD folds enough here
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Postby MTPaid » Thu May 03, 2007 10:50 pm

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Postby MindOverMatter » Thu May 03, 2007 10:58 pm

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