Last night I dropped over a hundred bucks ($50 NL). During all of it, I was making correct plays and getting my money in with the best of it. The cards just went the other way.

Didn’t tilt. Didn’t even feel bad, really. Just rebought and went back to work. The games were so juicy that I had to keep playing until I was so sleepy I couldn’t see straight. But I never caught a huge one that went my way.

Here are the big hands.

#1: Pick up 77, call a small raise along with 4 others (very loose table). Flop is K72 with two spades. Checks to the raiser, who checks, I bet the pot, one caller then the preflop raiser check-raises all-in. I say to myself OK let's see your KK and call. He has [Ts] for the nut flush draw and catches his turn spade, I get no help on the river. He was somewhat short-stacked, the pot is $60. Poker odds calculator says I win that 74.44% of the time. 74.44% * $60 = $44.66 of that should have been mine.

#2: Pick up KK. A raise in front of me so I re-raise. A short stack behind me re-raises again. Another short stack calls, along with two others. I raise all-in and only the short stacks call. They are on QJo and Q9s. (Told you this was juicy.) The Q9s catches his flush on the river to win. I win that $60 pot 75.11% of the time: $45.06 was my share.

#3: Pick up AA with more than a full stack. The guy who won hand #1 from me has been playing LAG, but not particularly good LAG: calling literally every hand, and almost every preflop raise, but not raising that much himself preflop. He's been getting lucky, and also taking advantage of his image: people are calling him for all their stacks with a just a 6 on a 776x6 board, things like that. He has about $250 in front of him, I have a little over $60. It's raised in front of me, I reraise pretty big, get two callers including the LAG. Don't remember all the cards, but he had 87 and catches a 7 on the flop. I bet full pot, only LAG calls. Turn is a blank, I push the rest of my chips, he calls. River brings his 7 and he takes down the $130 pot on a 5-outer. $130 * 88.64% = $115.23 is my share of that pot.

So like I said, I dropped a hundred bucks. If I get only average luck on those 3 pots, I get $115.23 + $45.06 + $44.66 = $204.95 and my night is +$100 instead of -$100. If I get good luck and drag them all, I win even more.

What are the odds of losing all 3? 11.36% * 24.89% * 25.56 = 0.007227, or about 0.7%. 7 nights in a thousand will be that bad.

What are the odds of winning all 3? 88.64% * 75.11% * 74.44% = 49.56%!! Half the time, I win all those pots and end the night up $150 instead of down $100!!

My bankroll can take the hit, easily. In fact, I won more than $100 earlier in the day. And the bonus dollars always help (cleared $20 in bonus while playing).

So I'm feeling fine. Just a little obsessed. Thanks for letting me vent a little.

Ahh, variance. Somebody needs to write an ode to variance. Any poets on the site?

Since I started looking at hands in terms of EV regardless of result, I started enjoying more the game and alsmot stopped tilting for good.

As you calculated you were big favorite and it didnt work. It will in the long run.

Hang in there. Were you playing at UB? I have seen some crazy stuff going on there but the tables are not so lose generally.

Play'm right and let the poker gods sort it out.

There will be a day where your set is beat by a flush but you rivered a full boat.